Monday, August 11, 2008

Why so serious??

For one because I've been a busy-bee at work. A new technology is being shipped out of the lab, going in for its first "production" run, and OMG being the lead on this technology, you can guesstimate the busy-ness of this bee. And since no-one from work reads this blog, I'll go out on a limb and leak some juicy bit of privy info--> the "production run" of this new technology is going to be on one of the biggest oil-discoveries of our times (think chevron, think back a couple of months).
Shhhhhhhh.... dont tell anyone... mums the word... else i'll have to shoot you... etc etc.

Anyway what else is going on in the OMG world??

Oh yes, of course the stock market AND IT--IS-----> EARNINGS SEASON!!!!
Trum-La-La-La , Drumrolls and bring on all that jazz please
Did I mention that we are in a market where the current trade is : oil=natural gas=coal=iron-ore=fertilizers=global-growth. What that means is that the whole commodity sector is trading as a group. If oil goes down, then so does fertilizer (did I mention on the back of stellar earnings, eg
Mosanto, Potash, etc etc ), of course lets forget the fact that fertilizer has nothing to do with crude-oil, but for now, for the hedge fund computers atleast, anything even remotely commodity-sounding has to be puked out.

Most of the charts of my fav stocks in these sectors have broken down, and I am going to open positions/reload soon (soon btw is not this week). On the radar: CHK(nat gas), MOS(fertilizer),MEE(coal),ANR(coal),RIG (oil-drilling),CLF(iron-ore mining) to name a few.

I recently read a hedge fund guru's comments (I forget whether it was
Stephen Mandel of Lone Pine Capital or Louis Bacon of Moore Capital Management) that they try and catch a lot of bottoms, because that is where the big profits are going to come from. Their mantra goes something like this:
Catch the bottom, not the middle, definitely not the top-->reiterate that fundamentals are in place--> have the balls to pull the trigger and place "big bets" on that bottom.

Note the huge emphasis on the balls-worthiness and big bets, that is the key because if you are not going to place a big bet on what you think is a bottom then your profits arent going to be spectacular. On an average what they said is that if they catch 4-5 right bottoms and place big bets on those per year, they will usually return 30%+ that year. Another interesting part of this article was the fact that hedge funds usually consider I-bankers as glorified pencil pushers at best. This is, kind of, in-line with my thinking that sell-side finance is crap.

And the point of all this bottom-talk is that I think I caught a bottom in this Russian ex-superstar. Bought a big chunk at $20. And we had caught a bottom in early July in this potentially huge Chinese growth story in the high 7s.


Lets see what else.... anything that relates to an MBA. Essays, GMAT blues, school-fitting, anything... what about an IB/MC debate...... Naaaahh!!!!! Too boring.... And Oh-My-God, we dont want to be boring do we. Thats so not Paris Hilton baby.

Disclosure: Long CHK, RIG, MTL, MOS, CFSG in Personal account

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

not very boring at all, nice blog.